2023 U.S. Open picks, odds, field, date: Surprising PGA predictions from golf model that called nine majors

The 2023 U.S. Open tees off Thursday, and reigning champion Matt Fitzpatrick will attempt to do what’s only been done once in the last 33 years, repeat. Brooks Koepka (2017-18) is the only back-to-back U.S. Open champion since 1989, but Fitzpatrick faces an uphill climb to join him. The Englishman had never finished better than 12th over his seven previous tournament starts, while 12th is also where 2021 champion Jon Rahm finished in his repeat bid a year ago. The U.S. Open 2023 will be held at Los Angeles Country Club and contested at the 7,421-yard North Course. Fitzpatrick is at 35-1 in the latest 2023 U.S. Open odds from Caesars Sportsbook, making him an even bigger long shot than the 22-1 he had a year ago.

Scottie Scheffler is the 2023 U.S. Open favorite at 13-2, followed by Rahm (8-1), Koepka (17-2) and Viktor Hovland (10-1). Before locking in your 2023 U.S. Open picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the 2023 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $10,200 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. And at the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, the model included Nick Taylor in its best bets to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. That bet hit at +7000, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned nearly $1,900. McClure’s best bets also included Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, even though he hadn’t won a PGA Tour event since 2018.

This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 U.S. Open field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2023 U.S. Open leaderboard.

Top 2023 U.S. Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2023: Max Homa, a six-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and doesn’t even crack the top 10. He’s been elite this season as one of four players to rank in the top seven in the FedEx Cup standings and Official World Golf Ranking, but his underlying metrics indicate there may be luck in his performance thus far. Homa ranks 92nd in driving accuracy percentage, 105th in greens in regulation percentage and a distant 189th in total driving efficiency.

Homa also has a history of coming up short in majors. He’s finished 47th or worse in his last four major starts and has no top-10s across 15 career major appearances. The pressure of underperforming at majors is compounded by the fact that he’s a Los Angeles native, so the locals will be expecting him to shine. Homa has yet to prove he can rise to the occasion in these types of situations, a big reason why the model isn’t high on him for the 2023 U.S. Open. See which golfers to fade here.

Another surprise: Collin Morikawa, a 25-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Morikawa has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. He has been one of the top contenders at major championships over the last three-plus years, beginning with a win at the PGA Championship in 2020.

Morikawa added a win at the 2021 Open Championship and a pair of fifth-place finishes at majors in 2022. He has yet to win the U.S. Open, but he has been knocking on the door with back-to-back top-fives. Morikawa ranks second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach to green, setting him up for success at Los Angeles Country Club. See who else to pick here.

How to make 2023 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with U.S. Open odds 2023 of 18-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s 2023 U.S. Open picks here.

So, who will win the U.S. Open 2023, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed nine golf majors, including this year’s Masters.

2023 U.S. Open odds, field

See full the U.S. Open 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler +650
Jon Rahm +800
Brooks Koepka +850
Viktor Hovland +1000
Rory McIlroy +1100
Patrick Cantlay +1400
Max Homa +1600
Xander Schauffele +1800
Justin Thomas +2500
Jordan Spieth +2500
Collin Morikawa +2500
Cameron Smith +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Dustin Johnson +2800
Cameron Young +3500
Matt Fitzpatrick +3500
Tyrrell Hatton +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Bryson DeChambeau +4000
Sungjae Im +4000
Jason Day +4000
Tommy Fleetwood +4500
Joaquin Niemann +5000
Sam Burns +5000
Shane Lowry +5000
Rickie Fowler +5000
Sahith Theegala +5500
Justin Rose +5000
Wyndham Clark +7000
Corey Conners +7500
Joonhyung (Tom) Kim +8500
Patrick Reed +8500
Adam Scott +9000
Talor Gooch +10000
Denny McCarthy +10000
Louis Oosthuizen +12500
Keegan Bradley +12500
Si-Woo Kim +12500
Russell Henley +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Mito Pereira +12500
Kurt Kitayama +12500
Keith Mitchell +15000
Tom Hoge +15000
Harris English +15000
Carlos Ortiz +15000
Justin Suh +15000
Phil Mickelson +15000
Abraham Ancer +15000
Min Woo Lee +15000
Lucas Herbert +17500
Victor Perez +17500
Seamus Power +17500
Adrian Meronk +17500
Taylor Moore +17500
Cam Davis +17500
Thomas Pieters +20000
Chris Kirk +20000
Eddie Pepperell +20000
Austin Eckroat +20000
K.H. Lee +20000
Taylor Montgomery +20000
Harold Varner +20000
Jason Kokrak +20000

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