2023 PGA Championship picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions by top-tier golf model that’s nailed 9 majors

Jon Rahm will try to win his second major of the year at the 2023 PGA Championship starting Thursday at Oak Hill Country Club. Rahm won the Masters by a dominating four strokes last month and should arrive in Rochester, N.Y. with plenty of confidence when the 2023 PGA Championship field hits the tee box. Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are the 7-1 co-favorites according to the latest 2023 PGA Championship odds on Caesar’s Sportsbook. Rory McIlroy follows at 11-1 with Patrick Cantlay and Brooks Koepka at 18-1 among the top 2023 PGA Championship contenders. Justin Thomas, who won the PGA Championship a year ago, is 20-1 to repeat.

Before locking in your 2023 PGA Championship picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the 2023 PGA Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $7,400 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm’s second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scottie Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, the model included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $1,100. McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 longshot.

This same model has also nailed a whopping nine majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 PGA Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 PGA Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the PGA Championship 2023: Rory McIlroy, a 23-time PGA Tour winner and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and doesn’t even crack the top 10. McIlroy is undeniably one of the most talented golfers in the world, but the 34-year-old has struggled mightily in recent weeks. He has missed the cut in two of his last four starts on the PGA Tour and he finished 47th at the Wells Fargo Championship in his last appearance.

McIlroy’s poor run of form can be directly attributed to his inconsistency on the green. The four-time major champion enters the PGA Championship 2023 ranked 112th in one-putt percentage (39.81%), 162nd in putting average (1.783) and 172nd in strokes gained putting (-0.356). He also ranks 172nd in greens in regulation percentage (62.96%), which doesn’t bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard this week. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2023 PGA Championship lineup, according to the model.

Another surprise: Max Homa, a 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Homa’s 2022-2023 season couldn’t have started any better, with back-to-back victories at the Fortinet Championship and as a member of the winning Presidents Cup team. He also won the Farmers Insurance Open in January and has already matched his career-high for wins in a season with two.

Homa’s career year has moved him to No. 6 in the world entering the 2023 PGA Championship and he has the third-highest earnings on tour this year at more than $8.3 million. The 32-year-old had his best major performance at last year’s PGA Championship, when he finished 13th. He ranks seventh in total strokes gained (1.975), including 10th in putting (.677). Another strong weekend with the putter and Homa could be hoisting his first major trophy of his career. See who else to pick here

How to make 2023 PGA Championship picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with PGA Championship odds 2023 longer than 20-1 who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s PGA Championship picks here.

So, who will win the PGA Championship 2023, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 PGA Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed nine golf majors, including this year’s Masters.

2023 PGA Championship odds, field

See full the PGA Championship 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Jon Rahm 7-1
Scottie Scheffler 7-1
Rory McIlroy 11-1
Patrick Cantlay 18-1
Brooks Koepka 18-1
Justin Thomas 20-1
Dustin Johnson 20-1
Jason Day 20-1
Xander Schauffele 22-1
Collin Morikawa 22-1
Tony Finau 25-1
Cameron Young 25-1
Viktor Hovland 28-1
Jordan Spieth 28-1
Max Homa 28-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 30-1
Cameron Smith 30-1
Sungjae Im 35-1
Tyrrell Hatton 40-1
Joonhyung (Tom) Kim 40-1
Talor Gooch 40-1
Sam Burns 40-1
Hideki Matsuyama 45-1
Patrick Reed 60-1
Shane Lowry 60-1
Adam Scott 65-1
Keegan Bradley 65-1
Rickie Fowler 65-1
Sahith Theegala 65-1
Tommy Fleetwood 70-1
Wyndham Clark 701
Justin Rose 75-1
Joaquin Niemann 75-1
Abraham Ancer 80-1
Phil Mickelson 85-1
K.H. Lee 90-1
Corey Conners 90-1
Bryson DeChambeau 90-1
Nicolai Hojgaard 100-1
Seamus Power 100-1
Rasmus Hojgaard 100-1
Russell Henley 100-1
Lucas Herbert 100-1
Harris English 100-1
Mito Pereira 100-1
Billy Horschel 125-1
Chris Kirk 125-1
Kurt Kitayama 125-1
Min Woo Lee 125-1
Gary Woodland 125-1
Davis Riley 125-1
Si-Woo Kim 125-1
Robert Macintyre 125-1
Denny McCarthy 125-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125-1
Matt Wallace 150-1
Webb Simpson 150-1
Paul Casey 150-1
Matt Kuchar 150-1
Nick Hardy 150-1
Anirban Lahiri 150-1
Aaron Wise 150-1
Harold Varner 150-1
Tom Hoge 150-1
Adrian Meronk 150-1
Keith Mitchell 175-1
Adam Hadwin 175-1
Victor Perez 175-1
Brian Harman 175-1
Alex Noren 175-1
Jordan Smith 175-1
Dean Burmester 175-1
Taylor Moore 175-1
Ryan Fox 200-1
Thriston Lawrence 200-1
Thomas Detry 200-1
Taylor Montgomery 200-1
Kevin Kisner 200-1
JJ Spaun 200-1
Cam Davis 200-1
Francesco Molinari 200-1
Thomas Pieters 200-1
Pabblo Larrazabal 200-1
Taylor Pendrith 200-1
Yannik Paul 200-1
Joel Dahmen 225-1
Luke List 225-1
Adam Svensson 225-1
Mackenzie Hughes 225-1
Matthew NeSmith 225-1
Thorbjorn Olesen 250-1
Maverick McNealy 250-1
Brendan Steele 250-1
Beau Hossler 250-1
Adri Arnaus 250-1
Emiliano Grillo 250-1
Ockie Strydom 250-1
Sepp Straka 250-1
Patrick Rodgers 250-1
Brandon Wu 275-1
JT Poston 300-1
Brendon Todd 300-1
Alex Smalley 300-1
Hayden Buckley 300-1
Andrew Putnam 300-1
Ben Griffin 300-1
Sam Horsfield 300-1
Scott Stallings 300-1
Nick Taylor 350-1
Ben Taylor 350-1
Mark Hubbard 350-1
Justin Suh 350-1
Davis Thompson 350-1
Chez Reavie 350-1
Danny Willett 350-1
Jimmy Walker 350-1
Callum Shinkwin 350-1
Padraig Harrington 350-1
Sam Ryder 350-1
Rikuya Hoshino 500-1
Callum Tarren 500-1
Luke Donald 500-1
Sihwan Kim 500-1
Trey Mullinax 500-1
David Lingmerth 500-1
Sadom Kaewkanjana 500-1
Kazuki Higa 500-1
Zach Johnson 500-1
David Micheluzzi 500-1
Adam Schenk 500-1
Nico Echavarria 500-1
Steven Alker 750-1
Shaun Micheel 2000-1
John Daly 2000-1
Y.E. Yang 2000-1

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